СТАТИСТИЧЕСКИЙ АНАЛИЗ ВРЕМЕННЫХ РЯДОВ НЕЙТРОННОГО МОНИТОРА И ПРЕДСКАЗАНИЕ ЗЕМЛЕТРЯСЕНИЙ
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Аннотация
В данной работе рассмотрены методы статистического анализа временных рядов применительно к данным нейтронных мониторов и базе данных землетрясений по Республике Казахстан с целью нахождения возможной корреляции между скоростью счета нейтронных мониторов Тянь-Шаньской высокогорной станции и одновременно регистрируемых в диапазоне до 2000 км от города Алматы землетрясений. Наблюдаемая корреляция имеет сложную функциональную связь с пространственно-временным упорядоченным рядом событий и используется для оценки вероятности землетрясений по показаниям нейтронных детекторов расположенных в горах на удалении 50 км от города.
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2. Avouac, J.P., P. Tapponnier, M. Bai, H. You and G. Wang Active thrusting and folding along the northeastern Tien Shan and late Cenozoic rotation of Tarim with respect to Dzungaria and Kazakhstan // J. Geophys. Res., 98, 1993. - P. 6755-6804.
3. http://tien-shan.org/she/vardbaccess/engtitle.html
4. http://tien-shan.org/she/texts/index.html
5. A.H. Argynova, A.A. Loctionov, V.V. Oskomov, T.H. Sadykov Search for the short time variations in wavelet spectrum of neutron counting rate correlating with the processes of upcoming earthquakes build up // Contemporary space technologies, Almaty, October 7-9, 2008. - P.108-110.
6. N.M. Duisekeyeva, A.S. Kussainov, V.V. Oskomov The earthquake precursors in wavelet transform of the data form the neutron monitor at Tien-Shan high elevation research station. // Vestnik Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Physics Edition. - Vol. 2(37), 2011.
7. M.A. Despotashvili, N.G.Khazaradze, N.A.Nachkebia, L.Kh.Shatashvili, D.I.Sikharulidze. Anomalous solar-diurnal variation of Cosmic Ray Neutron and Hard components intensity, cosmic phenomena and the problem of Earthquakes // Proceedings of the 26th International Cosmic Ray Conference. August 17-25, 1999. Salt Lake City, Utah, USA,Vol.7. - P. 440-443.
8. V.F. Ostapenko, V.A. Krasnoperov. Analysis of natural neutron flux in a seismically active zone, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2003, Vol:3. Is.6. - P. 777-780.
9. B.M. Kuzhevskij, O.Yu. Nechaev, E.A. Sigaeva, V.A. Zakharov. Neutron flux variations near the Earth's crust. A possible tectonic activity detection // Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 2003. – Vol. 3, Is. 6. - P. 637-645.
10. N.N. Volodichev, O.Y. Nechayev, Y.A. Sigayeva, V.P. Antonova, S,V. Kryukova, A.P. Chubenko, A.L. Shepetov. Registration of the thermal neutron flow from the secondary cosmic rays near the Earth surface during gravitational or seismic waves propagation // 31-st Conference on Cosmic Rays, Moscow, MSU, 2010, GEO_18. - P. 1-4.
11. Goltz C. Fractal and Chaotic Properties of Earthquakes, 1998. - P. 128-133.
12. B.M. Kuzhevskij, O.Yu. Nechaev, E.A. Sigaeva, V.A. Zakharov. Neutron flux variations near the Earth's crust. A possible tectonic activity detection // Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 2003, Vol. 3, Is. 6. - P. 637-645.
13. R.G. Harrison, D.B. Stephenson. Empirical evidence for a nonlinear effect of galactic cosmic rays on clouds // Proc. R. Soc. A 8 April 2006 vol. 462 no. 2068. - P. 1221-1233.
14. Statistics of Earth Science Data : Their Distribution in Time // Space and Orientation Borradaile, Graham J. , 2003. - 351 p.
15. V.F. Ostapenko, V.A. Krasnoperov. Analysis of natural neutron flux in a seismically active zone // Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2003. Vol:3. – Is.:6. - P. 777-780.
16. N.N. Mikhailova, I.L. Aristova. Reference events database for the needs of seismology. Vestnik NNC RK, 2005, 2 (22). - P. 62 - 72.
17. http://tien-shan.org/she/vardbaccess/engindex.html
18. S.N. Wood. Generalized additive models // An introduction with R. Chapman & Hall, 2006, 391 p.
19. P. Craven and G. Wahba. Smoothing noisy data with spline functions. Numerische Mathematik, 1979, 31, pp. 377 - 403.
20. http://www.r-project.org/
Загрузки
Опубликован
2017-10-10
Как цитировать
Kussainov, A., & Pya, N. (2017). СТАТИСТИЧЕСКИЙ АНАЛИЗ ВРЕМЕННЫХ РЯДОВ НЕЙТРОННОГО МОНИТОРА И ПРЕДСКАЗАНИЕ ЗЕМЛЕТРЯСЕНИЙ. Вестник. Серия Физическая (ВКФ), 38(3), 53–59. извлечено от https://bph.kaznu.kz/index.php/zhuzhu/article/view/977
Выпуск
Раздел
Теоретическая физика. Физика ядра и элементарных частиц. Астрофизика
