THE NEUTRON MONITOR TIME SERIES STATISTICS ANALYSIS AND EARTHQUAKES PREDICTION
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Аннотация
We have considered several methods for time series analysis applied to the neutron monitor counting rate and earthquake data set to find a possible correlation between the neutron counting rate at Tien-Shan mountain station and simultaneously registered earthquakes in 2000 km range from the target city of Almaty, Kazakhstan. This correlation has a complex form defined by the spatially and temporally ordered set of events and used to estimate the probability of an earthquake based on the readings of the station’s detectors located 50 km up in the mountains from the city.
Библиографиялық сілтемелер
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12. B.M. Kuzhevskij, O.Yu. Nechaev, E.A. Sigaeva, V.A. Zakharov. Neutron flux variations near the Earth's crust. A possible tectonic activity detection // Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 2003, Vol. 3, Is. 6. - P. 637-645.
13. R.G. Harrison, D.B. Stephenson. Empirical evidence for a nonlinear effect of galactic cosmic rays on clouds // Proc. R. Soc. A 8 April 2006 vol. 462 no. 2068. - P. 1221-1233.
14. Statistics of Earth Science Data : Their Distribution in Time // Space and Orientation Borradaile, Graham J. , 2003. - 351 p.
15. V.F. Ostapenko, V.A. Krasnoperov. Analysis of natural neutron flux in a seismically active zone // Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2003. Vol:3. – Is.:6. - P. 777-780.
16. N.N. Mikhailova, I.L. Aristova. Reference events database for the needs of seismology. Vestnik NNC RK, 2005, 2 (22). - P. 62 - 72.
17. http://tien-shan.org/she/vardbaccess/engindex.html
18. S.N. Wood. Generalized additive models // An introduction with R. Chapman & Hall, 2006, 391 p.
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20. http://www.r-project.org/
2. Avouac, J.P., P. Tapponnier, M. Bai, H. You and G. Wang Active thrusting and folding along the northeastern Tien Shan and late Cenozoic rotation of Tarim with respect to Dzungaria and Kazakhstan // J. Geophys. Res., 98, 1993. - P. 6755-6804.
3. http://tien-shan.org/she/vardbaccess/engtitle.html
4. http://tien-shan.org/she/texts/index.html
5. A.H. Argynova, A.A. Loctionov, V.V. Oskomov, T.H. Sadykov Search for the short time variations in wavelet spectrum of neutron counting rate correlating with the processes of upcoming earthquakes build up // Contemporary space technologies, Almaty, October 7-9, 2008. - P.108-110.
6. N.M. Duisekeyeva, A.S. Kussainov, V.V. Oskomov The earthquake precursors in wavelet transform of the data form the neutron monitor at Tien-Shan high elevation research station. // Vestnik Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Physics Edition. - Vol. 2(37), 2011.
7. M.A. Despotashvili, N.G.Khazaradze, N.A.Nachkebia, L.Kh.Shatashvili, D.I.Sikharulidze. Anomalous solar-diurnal variation of Cosmic Ray Neutron and Hard components intensity, cosmic phenomena and the problem of Earthquakes // Proceedings of the 26th International Cosmic Ray Conference. August 17-25, 1999. Salt Lake City, Utah, USA,Vol.7. - P. 440-443.
8. V.F. Ostapenko, V.A. Krasnoperov. Analysis of natural neutron flux in a seismically active zone, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2003, Vol:3. Is.6. - P. 777-780.
9. B.M. Kuzhevskij, O.Yu. Nechaev, E.A. Sigaeva, V.A. Zakharov. Neutron flux variations near the Earth's crust. A possible tectonic activity detection // Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 2003. – Vol. 3, Is. 6. - P. 637-645.
10. N.N. Volodichev, O.Y. Nechayev, Y.A. Sigayeva, V.P. Antonova, S,V. Kryukova, A.P. Chubenko, A.L. Shepetov. Registration of the thermal neutron flow from the secondary cosmic rays near the Earth surface during gravitational or seismic waves propagation // 31-st Conference on Cosmic Rays, Moscow, MSU, 2010, GEO_18. - P. 1-4.
11. Goltz C. Fractal and Chaotic Properties of Earthquakes, 1998. - P. 128-133.
12. B.M. Kuzhevskij, O.Yu. Nechaev, E.A. Sigaeva, V.A. Zakharov. Neutron flux variations near the Earth's crust. A possible tectonic activity detection // Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 2003, Vol. 3, Is. 6. - P. 637-645.
13. R.G. Harrison, D.B. Stephenson. Empirical evidence for a nonlinear effect of galactic cosmic rays on clouds // Proc. R. Soc. A 8 April 2006 vol. 462 no. 2068. - P. 1221-1233.
14. Statistics of Earth Science Data : Their Distribution in Time // Space and Orientation Borradaile, Graham J. , 2003. - 351 p.
15. V.F. Ostapenko, V.A. Krasnoperov. Analysis of natural neutron flux in a seismically active zone // Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2003. Vol:3. – Is.:6. - P. 777-780.
16. N.N. Mikhailova, I.L. Aristova. Reference events database for the needs of seismology. Vestnik NNC RK, 2005, 2 (22). - P. 62 - 72.
17. http://tien-shan.org/she/vardbaccess/engindex.html
18. S.N. Wood. Generalized additive models // An introduction with R. Chapman & Hall, 2006, 391 p.
19. P. Craven and G. Wahba. Smoothing noisy data with spline functions. Numerische Mathematik, 1979, 31, pp. 377 - 403.
20. http://www.r-project.org/
Жүктелулер
Как цитировать
Kussainov, A., & Pya, N. (2017). THE NEUTRON MONITOR TIME SERIES STATISTICS ANALYSIS AND EARTHQUAKES PREDICTION. ҚазНУ Хабаршысы. Физика сериясы, 38(3), 53–59. вилучено із https://bph.kaznu.kz/index.php/zhuzhu/article/view/977
Шығарылым
Бөлім
Теоретическая физика. Физика ядра и элементарных частиц. Астрофизика
